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The supply side is not afraid of disturbances. Industrial silicon production will hit a new high in 2022, with both production capacity deployment and increased capacity utilization contributing to supply growth. In 2023, it is expected that more than two million tons of industrial silicon production capacity will be put into operation, and the supply growth of industrial silicon is relatively certain.

The growth in industrial silicon demand in 2022 will significantly benefit from the demand for polysilicon. In 2023, polysilicon production capacity will continue to be invested in large quantities, which is expected to bring an increase in demand of approximately 700,000 tons to industrial silicon.

In 2022, the production capacity of organic silicon will increase significantly, and the demand for industrial silicon will increase significantly. However, industry profits have started to rise but have declined, and corporate operating rates have gradually declined, which has had a negative effect on industrial silicon demand. It is expected that after the second quarter of 2023, the weakening of the epidemic disturbance will lead to the recovery of profits in the silicone industry, and at the same time continue to increase the demand for industrial silicon.

The performance of the aluminum alloy industry is steady and growing, and it is expected that the demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloys will continue to maintain single-digit growth in 2023.

Industrial silicon exports will fall significantly in 2022. Against the background that expectations of overseas economic recession are gradually becoming reality, the downward trend in exports in 2023 may be difficult to reverse.

Generally speaking, industrial silicon is expected to continue to maintain a prosperous supply and demand pattern in 2023, but the overall supply and demand balance is still relatively loose. The superimposed cost side may have room for decline in the context of the easing energy crisis. We predict that the overall price of industrial silicon in 2023 will show an upward trend. In a downward sloping "W"-shaped trend, the price center of gravity has shifted downward. The reference range for industrial silicon futures prices in the first half of the year is 16,000-21,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the second half of the year is 15,000-19,000 yuan/ton.