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Forecasting the market of silicon metal in 2025 requires comprehensive consideration of supply and demand, production costs, policy environment, global economic situation and the development trend of downstream industries. The following is a forecast analysis based on current market dynamics and industry trends:

1. Supply and demand relationship
   Supply side:

As the world's leading producer of silicon metal, China's capacity and operating rate will continue to affect global supply. In 2025, with the tightening of environmental protection policies and the adjustment of the energy structure, some high energy consumption and high pollution capacity may be further withdrawn from the market, and the supply side may show a tight trend.

Limited capacity growth in overseas markets (e.g., Brazil, Norway, etc.) makes it difficult to compensate for the contraction in Chinese supply.

Demand side:

Photovoltaic industry: The demand for metal silicon in the photovoltaic industry will continue to grow. As the global energy transition accelerates, PV installed capacity is expected to increase significantly, especially in China, Europe and North America.

Aluminum alloy industry: Aluminum alloy demand is expected to remain stable, and the promotion of new energy vehicles and lightweight materials may bring additional growth.

Silicone industry: Silicone demand is expected to grow steadily, especially in the construction, electronics and medical sectors.

2. Price trend
   Cost support: Metal silicon production is highly dependent on electricity. Rising electricity prices and environmental protection costs will push up production costs and support prices.

Supply and demand pattern: If the supply side contracts and the demand side continues to grow, the price of silicon metal may show an upward trend, especially for high-quality silicon metal.

International market: The global economic recovery will affect the export demand for silicon metal. If the global economy picks up, export demand could increase, further pushing up prices.

3. Policy environment
   China's policy: China's "dual carbon" goals (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) will continue to promote the adjustment of the energy structure, which may impose restrictions on silicon metal production, especially for high-energy-consuming enterprises.

International trade policy: Policy changes such as tariffs and trade barriers may affect the import and export pattern of silicon metal.

4.Risk factors
Global economic uncertainty: If the global economic recovery is weak, demand growth may be less than expected.

Energy price fluctuations: Electricity cost is one of the main costs of silicon metal production, and energy price fluctuations will directly affect prices.

Policy risks: Environmental protection policies and production capacity restriction policies may have a greater impact on the supply side.

Summarize
In 2025, the silicon metal market will be generally good and prices are expected to rise, but it is necessary to pay close attention to policy changes, global economic conditions and the development trends of downstream industries. For investors and companies, early deployment of high-quality production capacity and downstream high-growth areas (such as photovoltaics and new energy) will be key.